Forecast accuracy is important, but accuracy alone does not determine usefulness. Timing, available alternatives and the cost of changing direction all influence whether information can improve an outcome.nnDecision-useful forecasting starts with the question being answered and works backwards to the evidence, horizon and level of precision that the decision actually requires.
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Markets & Forecasting
When Does a Forecast Become Decision-Useful?
A forecast creates value only when it changes or improves a real decision.
